• The purpose of the the Economic Policy Centre (EPC) is to promote high quality research and debate across all areas of economics in a free democratic society.
    The EPC's vision is to close the gap between economic policy and knowledge. Ultimately it brings together economic opinion formers - in academia, business, the media and government - in new and innovative ways.

  • Some guiding principles for a successful open data economy

    November 1st, 2011

    For some months now, I’ve been following “open data” on my google alerts and there is a lot going on, even in nations like Kenya. Added to the experience and frustration I’ve gained working on Britain’s second largest public dataset – crime – and working with my excellent Chief Data Architect, I’ve come to realise that for any government, organisation or developer starting out on this journey, there ought to be in place the following principles from the outset – which I’m sorry to say, has not been our experience.

    Guiding principles for open data;

    1. The data released by the government or public sector organisation must be 100% accurate and all fields completed. If it is not, you will raise the barriers to entry for developers who will have to spend their own precious time and money cleaning it up which they will then understandably be reluctant to share with anyone else.
    2. No new data fields may be added until point 1. is fully complete. If you try to run before you can walk, you and your data will fall over and public confidence in the initiative will quickly ebb.
    3. The provider of the data must not have a conflict of interest in providing it – i.e. they should not be releasing public data but witholding key information that they hope to make financial gain from nor should they be entitled to run a website that uses the data to advertise their business, nor should they have first sight and use of the data before the development community. Release the data yes –  release a competing platform simultaneously with unfair advantages – no.
    4. There must be from the start an open two-way conversation between data providers and developers. The easiest way to do this is to set up a forum with an ethos of recrimination free information discovery. The much less effective way is to set up a panel of experts who meet every couple of months and have little first hand knowledge of the data.
    5. Visibly open metrics must be kept on the number of active developers/applications/downloads – what is growing, declining, why?
    6. Government must take full responsibility for the accuracy of the data it releases. If some of it is found to be wrong, say so and say when it will be fixed. Do not change files and not tell any developers or the general public. They will notice.
    7. Government, public sector organisations and developers must be quick to be honest and open about any mistakes in data or applications – there will be some, this is part of the learning process. The point is that mistakes get found because it is open but were hidden away when it was closed.
    8. Establish clear data governance rules from the outset. Central hub collectors of large datasets should not permit spoke feed-in organisations to freely change codes, numbers, files etc. – this has a knock-on effect to developers down the line whose system is then broken and has to be redesigned, again raising the cost of open data development. Data integrity needs to be relied upon. Databases rely on defined rules that are always do this and never do that.

    Exclusive from UKCrimeStats – London Constituency Crime League Table

    October 20th, 2011

    Posted: October 20th, 2011  Author:   No Comments »

    We recently gave an exclusive to Planning in London magazine that showed crime and ASB events in London from December 2010 to July 2011. You will not find this anywhere else. Planning in London is the journal of the London Planning and Development Forum and a winning magazine of the year for the International Building Press awards multiple times.

    Here’s the pdf of the table with thanks to PiL.

    I wanted to do this because planners and their political masters need to think more about the crime and social impact of their cherished plans, not just the environmental one. For a number of years now, thanks in no small part to regulation, development has all been about increasing urban density on brownfield sites and energy efficiency. This has led to lots of trendy inner city flats and arguably, indirectly to a planning preference for atomising single or low digit person households. The resulting higher population densities almost always leads to more opportunities for crime and general disorder.

    Most people would still much rather live in an upstairs/downstairs home, not too close to their neighbours, with family and a garden, no matter how small. I would venture that more of these types of homes would also help lower the crime rate too.

    Article source: http://www.ukcrimestats.com/blog/2011/10/20/exclusive-from-ukcrimestats-london-constituency-crime-league-table/

    Rethinking The Unaffordable – new joint EPC KPMG paper

    July 21st, 2011

    Rethinking the Unaffordable is co-authored together with KPMG and takes an inquisitive look at the assumptions underpinning the Green Transition plan. Whilst asking if we are paying the right amount it also considers the implications on the competitiveness of the UK economy  –  the need to re-open the debate on energy in the UK could not be more urgent.

    Download from here.

     

    Which way for sterling next against the Euro and Dollar?

    July 16th, 2011

    As this chart shows, sterling has just gone through 18 months of value stability against the dollar and the euro. That’s actually quite a long time. With everything happening now in Euroland and the USA going up against the wire on lifting the debt ceiling, I just wonder if the pound might be due for a long-anticipated recovery?

    Italian and Spanish bond yields put Europe on tenterhooks . . .

    July 12th, 2011

    I don’t know how the final days of the Euro saga will pan out.

    The only thing I’m sure of is that it will be very ugly and it’s demise won’t do us Brits any good unless you have a formula for pricing in Schadenfreude. I’m also staggered by the decision of the ECB to raise interest rates a quarter of a point to 1.5%.

    So the big spike yesterday in the yield of Italian and Spanish bonds suggests to me that we are approaching the Euro endgame. Bailing out Greece is one thing. Supporting Spain and Italy would be an impossible other. If the yield goes to a fatal line of 7% according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in today’s DT, then it’s game over. Below is a chart of the Italian 10 Year Bonds. Spain is worse – just over 6%.

     

    What’s going on with unemployment?

    June 16th, 2011

    Talk about confusing – the good news is emphasised by the Guardian; unemployment is down to 7.7%  or 2.43 million, the fastest decline in a decade. But the bad news is stressed by the  Daily Telegraph which leads on the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance showing the biggest rise for nearly 2 years, up by 19,600 in May.

    Not exactly what you’d expect. There’s always a lot more to unemployment than meets the eye. But here are two main points about the latest data;

    i) A new record in part-time workers – for many, that’s all they can get

    ii) Lone parents able to work with older children who previously claimed Income Support are now receiving Jobseeker’s Allowance. This change was introduced “. . . for most lone parents with (i) a youngest child aged 12 or over from 24 November 2008, (ii) a youngest child aged 10 or over from 26 October 2009, (iii) a youngest child aged 7 or over from 25 October 2010

    Read the actual ONS document here.

    It’s the total size of the debt that makes it expensive . . .

    May 17th, 2011

    Beat this for a sobering bar chart in today’s Wall Street Journal;

    The shocker is that while the UK has a lower interest rate than Euroland and can borrow at lower rates than every other major European country other than Germany, we are only just behind most of the  PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland Greece and Spain) when measured by the total cost to GDP of interest payments on borrowing at 3.1% while Spain is some way down at 2.2%.

    I still think the story that the UK was facing bankruptcy etc. was way overblown and at times, silly. As I have argued here and here.

    But who wants to spend 3.1% of GDP on interest payments while simultaneously trying to enshrine in law a commitment to Foreign Aid of 0.7%?

     

    10 reasons why UKCrimeStats is better than Police.uk

    April 19th, 2011

    We can think of many more than 10 reasons but the driving force behind UKCrimeStats was to be able to do some proper analysis of the data of something that comes at great economic cost to the UK, crime.  So here goes;

    1. We use neighbourhood population data which means we can calculate Crime Rate. Crime rate is important because it takes into account how many people live a given area relative to the amount of crime and so imparts a better idea of risk.

    2. Each of the 500,000 crimes per month is given its own id, map and url e.g. http://www.ukcrimestats.com/Street_Crime/1001/

    - and you can search by id – try typing in any number 1 1,500,000

    3. We can do cumulative analysis over time or in just one month

    4. We have a neighbourhood ranking system – future elected Police Commissioners need some kind of metric for voters to hold them to account and this is a good starting point – search for your neighbourhood and see

    5. We are open about the shortcomings of the data – see our Problems With The Crime Data page and FAQ – and we correspond with Police Forces when we see problems so that they can be resolved

    6. You can advertise on the site according to Neighbourhood or within a certain number of miles within a given postcode – see here

    7. You can compare the 43 Police Forces to see which has the highest or lowest crime rate/total crime/type of crime in which month / over the selected months – see here

    8. You can export up to 1,000 rows of results to excel as a csv file

    9. You can ask nationally across England and Wales which neighbourhoods have the higest/lowest total / crime rate /  violent / vehicle / robbery / other / asbo in this month or over these selected months? – see here

    10.  You can ask nationally across England and Wales which streets have the highest total crime / violent / vehicle / robbery / other / asbo in this month or over these selected months? – see here – (we can’t show lowest until all streets in the UK have had a crime registered on them and with 3 months of data that’s not possible)

    I could go on and say that we’re independent and not funded by government. All in all, this is a work in progress with updates and improvements coming through each month.  We have also entered the site into the Open Data Challenge competition, so fingers crossed !

    EPC Space Fellow Jim Bennett on Yuri Gagarin’s anniversary and the New Space Race

    April 18th, 2011

    James C. Bennett writes:

    April 12th, was the 50th anniversary of the first human flight into space, that of the Russian Yuri Gagarin.  At the time, it was viewed entirely through the lens of the Cold War and its politics — as a propaganda tool by the Soviet regime, on their side — a proof of the glory of the Communist regime.  In the west, it was viewed as a symbol of Nikita Krushchev’s recent threat — “We will bury you.”   Today, the symbols of the Soviet era are found only in museums, and the same Soyuz launch vehicles now carry the double-headed eagle of the Russian Federation.  Gagarin himself is long dead, a victim of a mundane accident.  A new space race, driven not by politics but by the urge for exploration and industry pits not nation against nation, but multinational teams from across the globe in peaceful commercial competition.  In the long run Gagarin will be remembered not as the cog in the Soviet state machine that he was during his lifetime, but as the precursor of the expansion of humanity off the planet of our birth.

    Meanwhile, the emergence of a new suborbital provider intending to operate from the Netherlands demonstrates that the new space race is heating up Europe as well as America.  Recently the prestigious Southwest Research Institute, one of America’s premier space research organizations, startled the research world by reserving suborbital flights on both the American form XCOR Aerospace and the Anglo-American firm Virgin Galactic for scientific research, demonstrating that the term “space tourism” may become an inadequate description of human commercial suborbital flight.  Meanwhile, suborbital operators continue to await further clarification of the regulatory environment from authorities at both the national and European Union levels, which may determine the viability of EU member states as operational locations.  These new developments demonstrate that the stakes — jobs and stimulation of business and research —  in this matter are increasing as time goes by.