• The purpose of the the Economic Policy Centre (EPC) is to promote high quality research and debate across all areas of economics in a free democratic society.
    The EPC's vision is to close the gap between economic policy and knowledge. Ultimately it brings together economic opinion formers - in academia, business, the media and government - in new and innovative ways.

  • We are fully updated to the latest month

    May 16th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/05/15/we-are-fully-updated-to-the-latest-month/

    Quentin Hanley: unveiling relationships between crime and property types

    March 22nd, 2018

    A guest post by Quention Hanley:

    Roughly two years ago, we pointed out a key feature of crime: its tendency to accelerate as population density increases. This type of behaviour has been observed many times in many parts of the world. The features of cities and urban regions that increase opportunity for crime also accelerate property values and productivity.

    Recently, Dan Lewis, Haroldo Ribeiro and I looked deeper into the data set of police reported crime and property transactions.  We wanted to understand better how to measure a location’s uniqueness and how different measures relate to each other.

    How can we define what makes a location special? First we need to remove the part that is predictable due to population density and see what is left. In simple terms, some places are special.  We expect a region to have a particular amount of crime but see less (possibly much less). Another location may have a much healthier property market than we expect. These are examples of regions that are better than expected. The opposite may be true. We see more crime and a depressed property market. In our study, we call this information density scale adjusted metrics (DSAMs).

    We took all this information and tried to understand patterns. How do different indicators relate to each other? Do wealthy neighbourhoods (based on a healthy property market) attract burglars?

    The figure below is a way of presenting what we found. The red colours show positive correlation (e.g. Anti-social behaviour (ASB) is strongly associate with criminal damage and arson (CDA)) and blue colours indicate negative correlation (e.g. CDA is high where property indicators are low). Overall, this figure indicates that if you live in a region with an exceptionally buoyant property market you are also likely to be exceptionally safe from crime.

    The figure also sorts crime and property types into hierarchies. For example, Robbery, Vehicle crime, and Burglary form a cluster but are relatively distant from another cluster consisting of ASB, CDA and Violence.

    This helps us to understand how measures of exceptionality relate to each other but the two dimensional grid presentation limits our perception to paired behaviours. We can also look at this as a complex network as in the figure below.

    If we do this we can see a modular structure for crime dividing it into two groups roughly divided into acquisitive types of crime and all others. The division is not perfect but clearly one module contains the more violent and aggressive crime types and the other many of the acquisitive crimes. Although not easy to see, CDA is the crime with the highest connectivity to the other crime types in its module. In our study, we found that CDA was one of the most influential crime types in terms of its connectedness to other serious crimes like violence and weapons. It also was associated with depressed markets across all property types.

    We hope this type of study helps us understand how to protect communities and allocate scarce resources better. If you are interested in the study beyond this general overview, the paper may be found here.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/22/quentin-hanley-unveiling-relationships-between-crime-and-property-types/

    Crime now updated to January 2018

    March 10th, 2018

    Gwent Police have now updated their information to include Burglary for January – we need to go back and reload the last few months it was missing, when that information is available. Still no update from City of London Police.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/10/crime-now-updated-to-january-2018/

    Price paid data for property prices from Land Registry

    March 10th, 2018

    Now updated to January 2018. As always and as per the source data, the latest month is incomplete and missing approx half of the transactions.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/10/price-paid-data-for-property-prices-from-land-registry/

    We have updated to the very latest postcodes

    March 10th, 2018

    This has to be done every few months – they are anything but static and become out of data quite quickly. We have added just over 4,000 of them in this update alone !

    Here’s one in Scotland – AB10BBP. And here’s another right in the middle of Sutton, South London – http://www.ukcrimestats.com/Postcode/SM19QE.

    2,500 plus have also been retired and quite a few have been restored.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/10/we-have-updated-to-the-very-latest-postcodes/

    Gwent Police missing crime data

    March 1st, 2018

    A couple of months ago, we alerted the Home Office to the missing crime data of Gwent Police for which they thanked us and flagged up on their data page a bit later. Basically, missing burglary counts and some other omissions. This has a downstream impact on postcodes and other shapes covered by that area – they typically start with NP. So please be aware that if you are seeing record drops in burglary counts for that area, it’s more likely that the data has not been submitted yet We aim to correct this as soon as the data becomes available.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/01/gwent-police-missing-crime-data/

    High growth in recorded violent crime over the last few years

    January 9th, 2018

    A few days ago, the Argus newspaper cited our data showing a marked increase in recorded violent crime across Sussex. I just ran a report on our Analysis page and actually, Sussex is far from alone, or even anywhere near the top. All Police Forces apart from Northern Ireland have shown an at least 50% increase and up to nearly 4 times increase in reported violent crime between November 2013 and November 2017. The caveats of course need to be emphasised;

    i) crime that was not showing up as reported or recorded may now be much more likely to be so

    ii) Not all “violent” crime is actually violent crime against the person – it includes verbal abuse

    I’d also like to add that whereas Police Forces have undoubtedly come under budgetary pressure in recent years, it would be a mistake to see a unicausal relationship between Police budgets going up or down and the level of crime.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/01/08/high-growth-in-recorded-violent-crime-over-the-last-few-years/

    Still waiting for City of London Police monthly data – October and November 2017

    January 6th, 2018

    London has 2 Police Forces, the big one, the Metropolitan Police Service and a tiny one, the City of London Police covering the main Financial District known as the City of London. For reasons unknown, the City of London Police have not shared their crime data for the last 2 months, but we are told an update is due within the month.

    There are 1.6 million postcodes and this has an impact on approx 1,700 postcodes that fall within the City of London. So it means that all boundaries, postcodes, constituencies etc. that overlap or fall within this area are registering zero crime for the last 2 months. Obviously that’s not the case but we just want you to be aware.



    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/01/06/still-waiting-for-city-of-london-police-monthly-data-october-and-november-2017/

    Staying up to date: we just added 3,531 new postcodes

    December 31st, 2017

    Too many people don’t realise that postcodes are ever evolving, new ones being created, deleted and restored. Nothing more irritating than buying a dataset with a missing or non-valid postcode. We always stay up to date on postcodes here, as soon as they are released, every 3-4 months. So you can rely on our data for being current. Here is a new postcodes from that selection for you to cross-reference with anyone else YO89TS;


    It does mean of course that with new postcodes, we won’t yet have any energy consumption (from 2015) or property sales data to show.

    There were also 2,568 deletions and 1,118 postcodes restored.




    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2017/12/30/staying-up-to-date-we-just-added-3531-new-postcodes/

    Is shoplifting increasing? Yes – according to the reported data.

    December 31st, 2017

    There were a few stories recently in the media about how Police are now officially not investigating shoplifting of items valued under £200. I fully understand the need for a cut-off point in order to focus on crimes that do greater damage. I just don’t see the need to publicise and legislate for what it is.

    Discretion ought to be at play here rather than a top-down, one size fits all directive. And there must be other solutions to be explored that could work as well or even better than Police investigations for our shopkeepers.

    Anyway, I’ve lifted the data from our National Picture page from January 2013 (when our data for Northern Ireland starts) to the latest month November 2017 and added a linear trendline. In percentage terms we are clearly going up, with most of the increase since th the introduction of the Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014.


    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2017/12/30/is-shoplifting-increasing-yes-according-to-the-reported-data/