• The purpose of the the Economic Policy Centre (EPC) is to promote high quality research and debate across all areas of economics in a free democratic society.
    The EPC's vision is to close the gap between economic policy and knowledge. Ultimately it brings together economic opinion formers - in academia, business, the media and government - in new and innovative ways.

  • Towards a tariff-free WTO future? EPC fringe event at the CPC – Sunday 30th Sept at 15.45

    September 24th, 2018

    Much looking forward to our first fringe event at the Conservative Party Conference this year. At the time of organising this event, there was only 1 slot left and I had to decide there and then on the topic. As events have turned out – the topic was perfectly topical as we are just now discovering how difficult it is to negotiate with the EU and how much more willing other nations are to look at new trading relations.

    Towards a  tariff-free WTO future?

    Date: Sunday 30th September 15.45 – 17.00

    Venue: Hyatt Regency Hotel, Dolce Room

    Confirmed speakers:

    Shanker Singham of the Institute of Economic Affairs

    Marcus Fysh MP

    The Rt. Hon the Lord Lilley

    Crime now updated to July 2018

    September 9th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/09/09/crime-now-updated-to-july-2018/

    Property prices now updated to July 2018

    September 1st, 2018

    Currently working on the new postcodes, expecting July crime data imminently.

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    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/09/01/property-prices-now-updated-to-july-2018/

    Postcodes updated again . . .

    July 9th, 2018

    Every 3-4 months, we update postcodes as soon as the new ones are made available via Code Point Open of the Ordnance Survey. Out of 1.7 million postcodes, you’d be surprised how often changes are made.

    Every few months, postcodes are deleted, restored or just brand new.

    This time there were;

    3641 new postcodes

    2907 deleted postcodes

    1034 renewed postcodes

     

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    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/07/09/postcodes-updated-again/

    Crime and property prices now updated to May 2018

    July 6th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/07/06/crime-and-property-prices-now-updated-to-may-2018/

    Crime now updated to April 2018

    June 6th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/06/06/crime-now-updated-to-april-2018/

    Property prices updated to April 2018

    June 4th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/06/03/property-prices-updated-to-april-2018/

    Chasing up missing and questionable data with the Home Office

    May 24th, 2018

    Just to keep you informed, a couple of days ago I emailed the Home Office via police.uk to query some and chase down some missing data. I have copied my email below. They have replied and said they have forwarded to the relevant civil servants and will update me when they have an answer.

    Dear Sir,

    We are getting in touch to question the following data which looks wrong, please can you check/ask for confirmation from the relevant Police Forces?

    Gwent Policehttp://ukcrimestats.com/Police_Force/Gwent_Police – March 2018 ASB total looks low and violent crime looks high (suggest they have been mixed up a bit)

    City of London Police – still missing Feb18, Jan18, Oct 17. See http://ukcrimestats.com/Police_Force/City_of_London_Police . March 2018 and September 2017, May 2017, Feb 2017, Dec 2016 and earlier ASB totals look improbably low (frequently zero).

    Please can you investigate?

    With many thanks.

    Regards,

    Dan Lewis

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    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/05/24/chasing-up-missing-and-questionable-data-with-the-home-office/

    We are fully updated to the latest month

    May 16th, 2018

    The leading crime and postcode data research and analysis platform

    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/05/15/we-are-fully-updated-to-the-latest-month/

    Quentin Hanley: unveiling relationships between crime and property types

    March 22nd, 2018

    A guest post by Quention Hanley:

    Roughly two years ago, we pointed out a key feature of crime: its tendency to accelerate as population density increases. This type of behaviour has been observed many times in many parts of the world. The features of cities and urban regions that increase opportunity for crime also accelerate property values and productivity.

    Recently, Dan Lewis, Haroldo Ribeiro and I looked deeper into the data set of police reported crime and property transactions.  We wanted to understand better how to measure a location’s uniqueness and how different measures relate to each other.

    How can we define what makes a location special? First we need to remove the part that is predictable due to population density and see what is left. In simple terms, some places are special.  We expect a region to have a particular amount of crime but see less (possibly much less). Another location may have a much healthier property market than we expect. These are examples of regions that are better than expected. The opposite may be true. We see more crime and a depressed property market. In our study, we call this information density scale adjusted metrics (DSAMs).

    We took all this information and tried to understand patterns. How do different indicators relate to each other? Do wealthy neighbourhoods (based on a healthy property market) attract burglars?

    The figure below is a way of presenting what we found. The red colours show positive correlation (e.g. Anti-social behaviour (ASB) is strongly associate with criminal damage and arson (CDA)) and blue colours indicate negative correlation (e.g. CDA is high where property indicators are low). Overall, this figure indicates that if you live in a region with an exceptionally buoyant property market you are also likely to be exceptionally safe from crime.

    The figure also sorts crime and property types into hierarchies. For example, Robbery, Vehicle crime, and Burglary form a cluster but are relatively distant from another cluster consisting of ASB, CDA and Violence.

    This helps us to understand how measures of exceptionality relate to each other but the two dimensional grid presentation limits our perception to paired behaviours. We can also look at this as a complex network as in the figure below.

    If we do this we can see a modular structure for crime dividing it into two groups roughly divided into acquisitive types of crime and all others. The division is not perfect but clearly one module contains the more violent and aggressive crime types and the other many of the acquisitive crimes. Although not easy to see, CDA is the crime with the highest connectivity to the other crime types in its module. In our study, we found that CDA was one of the most influential crime types in terms of its connectedness to other serious crimes like violence and weapons. It also was associated with depressed markets across all property types.

    We hope this type of study helps us understand how to protect communities and allocate scarce resources better. If you are interested in the study beyond this general overview, the paper may be found here.

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    Article source: http://ukcrimestats.com/blog/2018/03/22/quentin-hanley-unveiling-relationships-between-crime-and-property-types/